In Brief: Three Key Findings

01 Arrests Outpace Treatment

Enforcement has scaled dramatically, with drug-related arrests hitting record highs. In contrast, access to treatment has stagnated, creating a significant gap between the punitive response and public health support.

02 Methamphetamine on the Rise

While heroin and cannabis remain prevalent, the sharp increase in methamphetamine ('ice') arrests marks a structural shift in the drug market, posing new challenges for law enforcement and healthcare providers.

03 Geographic Disparities

The Western Province is the crisis's epicentre, but many regional districts face a dual challenge: rising drug-related issues combined with a severe lack of accessible treatment facilities, amplifying harm in underserved communities.

Context

Arrests Surged While Treatment Stalled

This opening visual frames the crisis: enforcement scaled quickly and visibly, while access to treatment remained critically low. The vast number of arrests dwarfs the number of individuals entering rehabilitation, signalling a system prioritising punishment over public health.

Dot plot comparing the vast number of drug-related arrests to the much smaller number of people entering treatment from 2018 to 2023.
Each orange dot represents approximately 1,000 arrests; each blue dot represents 100 people entering treatment. The disparity highlights a policy imbalance.

Patterns

The Shifting Substance Landscape

A breakdown of arrests by substance reveals the evolving nature of the drug market. While heroin and cannabis remain dominant, the rapid emergence of methamphetamine (ice) signifies a structural shift that reshapes law enforcement priorities and public health challenges.

Four semicircle charts showing drug-related arrests by substance: Heroin, Cannabis, Methamphetamine, and Other Substances, with totals from 2018-2023.
The rise in methamphetamine arrests points to new trafficking networks and poses unique health risks requiring specialised treatment approaches.

Markets

Seizures: A Story of Supply, Not Demand

Seizure data offers a window into law enforcement activity and trafficking routes, rather than the prevalence of use. Fluctuations in the streamgraph reflect successful interdictions, shifts in smuggling methods, and changing operational focus by police and customs.

A streamgraph showing the volume of drug seizures over time, categorised by substance type.
A spike in seizures may indicate a successful crackdown or a surge in supply. Conversely, a drop may mean traffickers have found new routes, not that the market has shrunk.

Capacity

A Fractured Rehabilitation System

The landscape of drug treatment and rehabilitation is divided among government bodies, prison-based programs, and non-governmental organisations. While the National Dangerous Drugs Control Board (NDDCB) leads, its capacity is dwarfed by the sheer scale of arrests, leaving significant gaps in care.

A bubble chart comparing the capacity of different rehabilitation providers, such as NDDCB centres, prisons, and NGOs.
Limited capacity and long waitlists for NGO and NDDCB centres mean many individuals end up in prison-based programs, blurring the lines between healthcare and incarceration.

Policy

The Rhythm of Political Crackdowns

Enforcement intensity is not arbitrary; it ebbs and flows with political agendas, major policy shifts, and public pressure. This timeline correlates significant enforcement trends with the administrations and key legislative changes that drove them.

A timeline chart correlating drug arrests and seizures with different presidential administrations and policy changes.
Understanding the policy context is crucial to distinguish between a genuine rise in drug activity and a politically motivated surge in policing.

Geography

Where the Crisis Hits Hardest

While the Western Province is the undisputed epicenter of drug arrests, a granular geographic view reveals a more complex reality. Many regional districts face a dual crisis: rising drug-related harm combined with a severe lack of accessible treatment facilities.

A map or geographic chart showing the distribution of drug-related arrests across Sri Lanka's provinces.
Mapping arrests against treatment centers highlights "treatment deserts"—areas with high enforcement but minimal support, amplifying harm in vulnerable communities.

A Call for Rebalance

The data tells a clear story: a strategy overwhelmingly focused on law enforcement has not curbed the rising tide of drug-related harm. A sustainable path forward requires a systemic rebalancing—investing in evidence-based treatment, harm reduction, and community support with the same urgency and resources dedicated to policing. The challenge is not just to fight a 'war on drugs', but to build a resilient public health infrastructure that can heal and empower communities.

Cite This Work

Chatura Dissanayake. (2025). The Shadow War: Unpacking Sri Lanka's Drug Crisis. Retrieved from [Website URL]

Dissanayake, C. (2025). The Shadow War: Unpacking Sri Lanka's Drug Crisis [Data Story]. Retrieved from [Website URL]

@article{dissanayake-drug-crisis-2025,
  title = {The Shadow War: Unpacking Sri Lanka's Drug Crisis},
  author = {Dissanayake, Chatura},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Data Story},
  note = {Retrieved from [Website URL]}
}

Behind the Numbers

This analysis is based on official data from national authorities. Direct access to primary sources is provided here to foster transparency, encourage further research, and support informed public debate.

All text and original visualisations are available under a Creative Commons BY-NC 4.0 License .